You may use this idea to become rich. Just give me 10% of your profits. Losses are all yours though - that is tax deductible, right?
If you are not a criminal, you probably believe in the adage: “Truth Triumphs”.
Instead of the countless hours that I spent Donald Duck dancing in front of my sympathetic friends, had I done some research and put some options where my mouth was, I would now have more options to put things in places - especially my feet in Seychelles and some of the finest rotten grape juices in my mouth - regardless of what I would actually do.
I think this is a great hedge fund idea. Derivatives of this idea could make great startup ideas. If startups are born from the conviction that Fat Corporation is the ‘Bad Way To Do Business’ TM, why not take it all the way and build your business model around fighting evil?
Do you claim that Splenda is just chlorinated sugar and hence a deadly carcinogen waiting to strike en masse? Buying put options on Johnson & Johnson could be your ticket to wonderland. What is stopping you? What, you are not that sure now or something?
TRAT HedgeFund (Truth Always Triumphs Hedge Fund) could also lead to a better world. If Green Peace can buy put options in Exxon before suing their asses for an oil spill, it can be self-sufficient. Is it legal for a hedge fund to lobby? If not already so, I guess it can be lobbied successfully that it is legal for them to lobby - given suffient money. This could be like the idea of unleashing solar powered self-replicating robots in the desert to build solar panels from the sand (K Lackner & C Wendt ; Cochran ; cached link).
I bought a significant (significant for me) chunk of Vonage using the same logic. My average price was $3.11 per share. But contrary to my expectations, Vonage lost the seemingly frivolous and vague patent lawsuit and went down to $0.89. I expected that it would jump to at least $7, if they won. It has bounced back to $2.10 since. Lets see what happens.
You missed Enron. You still have time on Halliburton. Will you act? Microsoft, anyone?
Unpredictability = Risk. Since you know that the “Truth Triumphs”, you get huge advantage, since the outcome is predictable. Watch out for options expiry though.
Consult your accountants and financial experts before proceeding with this idea. Side effects may include nausea, bankrupcy, extreme riches and/or baldness by tendency to pull your hair out. No animals were harmed in the writing of this post. Opinions of the author are, well, opinions.